On a year-to-date basis, markets continue to surprise to the upside despite persistent market uncertainty. Given the downside volatility of 2022 and the continuation of many of the same risk factors carrying over into 2023, many market forecasts expected continued downside. So far, this has not been the case. Consumers have remained resilient despite high prices, in part due to pandemic-era increases in savings and rising wages. What remains to be seen is how long the consumer can hang on given very tight financial conditions.
Sharp contrasts remain in commonly cited economic datapoints. We’ve seen four bank failures globally, one of which was the second largest in US history. These banks failures are due, in large part, to Fed rate increases over the course of 2022 designed to combat high inflation. Moreover, the Conference Board’s leading economic index continues to decline and signals weak GDP growth ahead. GDP growth for the current quarter, however, remains positive, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast.
In Washington, it seems debt ceiling negotiations are progressing, but likely not quick enough given an ex-date of June 1st from Treasurer, Janette Yellen. Despite the risk of default and a tight deadline to strike a deal, the market seems to be mostly ignoring the possibility of catastrophic consequences.
Our team believes that now is an incredibly important time to make sure that you have a plan in place that you can stick to. As we all know, markets can feel very scary and the speed at which changes in various risk factors are reflected in market prices can be astonishing, leaving investors with no opportunity to react to the change in real-time.
Having a relationship with a team of advisors carefully managing your assets to meet your long-term goals will make a huge impact on your long-term investment success.
AUTHORED BY:
Luke McCaslin | Senior Investment Strategist | Class VI Family Office, LLC
Luke McCaslin is a Certified Financial Planner® offering more than a decade of experience in banking and wealth management. A core member of the Class VI Family office since 2019, Luke assists entrepreneurs and their families in thinking through credit solutions, financial planning opportunities, and asset allocation decisions and creates customized investment policy aligned with each client’s unique goals.
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